Category: Estimation
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Being able to do without understanding is true intelligence. I don’t know how humans came to the conclusion that you need truths to make mental models and frameworks. You need what works and not what is entirely made out of truth. If incorrect or false elements can get you to something that works then so…
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We like to think we’re rational, but when it comes to estimating probabilities, we’re all terrible. And not in a “haha, I guessed wrong” way, but in a systematic, predictable, and completely avoidable way. A study on probability estimation by non-experts breaks down why we get it wrong and what we can do to fix…